The Canadian economy is set to rebound next year, leading growth among G7 nations, the country’s largest bank predicted Monday.

The domestic economy is expected to grow 2.6 per cent in 2010 and 3.9 per cent the year after that, after shrinking by an estimated 2.5 per cent this year, Royal Bank of Canada said in a report.

Stimulus spending, improving credit conditions and consumer spending will be the main drivers of growth, the bank said, with Saskatchewan leading the country’s economic expansion next year.

“While challenges remain, a peak in stimulus and infrastructure spending across the federal, provincial and municipal governments, along with low interest rates, should result in a sustained recovery,” said Craig Wright, the bank’s chief economist, in the report.

The peak of stimulus spending will happen next year, while better credit conditions should lift growth through to 2011, he added.

Recovery comes with a steep price tag, though the budget deficits will still be lower, relative to GDP, than the peaks reached in the early 1990s, the report said.

Altogether, the provinces are projecting shortfalls of $38.2-billion in the 2009-2010 fiscal year and at least $30.2-billion the year after that – both records in terms of value, RBC said.

Canadian consumer spending should rise 2.3 per cent next year and accelerate to 2.7 per cent in 2011.

The jobless rate, meantime, will stay high next year, averaging 8.7 per cent and peaking at 8.9 per cent before easing to 7.8 per cent in 2011. Canada’s unemployment rate is currently 8.5 per cent.

“The past year has been, by far, the toughest since the early 1990s recession and, in some cases, the early 1980s recession,” the bank said.

Activity in the housing market will stay strong, though the pace will taper off in the second half of next year due to rising mortgage rates and higher home prices.

The Canadian dollar will trade around parity, supported by rising commodity prices and as the Bank of Canada boosts interest rates before the U.S. Federal Reserve. On Monday morning, the currency was trading around 93.88 cents (U.S.).

The U.S. economy will grow 2.5 per cent next year and 3.4 per cent in 2011, RBC said.

Among provinces, Saskatchewan is likely to tally the biggest growth spurt, with 3.9-per-cent growth next year and a 4.6-per-cent increase in 2011, thanks to a pickup in potash and natural gas markets.

“This will return the province to the top of the growth ranking among provinces after likely losing this honour to Manitoba in 2009,” it said.

The slowest growth will likely be in Quebec and Prince Edward Island, at 2.2 per cent each next year.

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Although federal-provincial accords on immigration have proliferated, Quebec was the first Canadian province to set its own immigration policy and is the only one with a non-economic basis for that policy. Yet these advantages do not seem to have served the province well, given that some policy choices appear to have reduced its attractiveness as a destination for migrants.

Immigrant Criteria
The Quebec and Canadian governments share jurisdiction with respect to immigration, but the Quebec government sets its own requirements:

-Selection. Quebec selects immigrants who it deems will adapt well to living in the province.

-Language matters. Crucially, the foundation of Quebec’s immigration regime is language: Quebec wishes to select immigrants who speak French.

-Relative Performance
Over the past decade, approximately 400,000 immigrants have arrived in Quebec. The annual rate has almost doubled during this time and the nature of those immigrating has also changed. Until the 1980s, most immigrants came from Europe, whereas now approximately 40% come from North Africa, particularly Algeria and Morocco.

However, the province’s total represents just 18% of all immigrants to Canada (225,000 immigrants arrive in Canada each year). By contrast, Ontario attracts 52% of all immigrants to Canada, with the majority settling in Toronto.

-Retention Problems
Canada, like the United States, does not require people to officially report changes of address, so it is difficult to measure precisely how many migrants leave Quebec. But distinguished Quebec demographer Jacques Henrinpin has estimated that the province loses 28% of its immigrants within five years, 40% over 10 years and approximately 50% over 20 years.

Quebec also chronically loses non-immigrant residents to other provinces via internal migration. Since 1966, Quebec has lost approximately 30,000 residents annually to English-speaking provinces and welcomed only 16,000 to 17,000 Canadian migrants.

Quebec’s relative attractiveness. Several factors make Quebec less attractive to immigrants than other provinces (particularly Ontario and British Columbia) for immigrants:

-French language schooling. Unless they were educated in English in another province, new immigrants may not send their children to English-speaking state schools. (The relevant law has been struck down by the courts, but the Quebec government has two years to respond.)

-Anti-immigrant rhetoric. Relative to other provinces, political and media commentators are often highly critical of immigrants.

-French returnees. Surprisingly, Quebec also appears to have trouble retaining immigrants from France. According to Quebec’s Ministry of Immigration, every year 3,000 to 4,000 French nationals settle permanently in the province, 7,000 enter on temporary visas and over 5,000 arrive as students. However, there is strong evidence that a substantial number of these migrants leave the province within a relatively brief period of time.

-Credential Recognition
In the public debate on how to improve Quebec’s attractiveness to immigrants, it is often observed that migrants have trouble securing recognition of professional credentials earned overseas. However, this is a chronic problem in all Canadian provinces, so it does not explain relatively low net migration to, or out-migration from, Quebec.

-Key Policy Challenges
Quebec is unlikely ever to overtake Ontario or Western Canada as a favored destination for immigrants. Economic payoffs associated with proficiency in English are higher than French.

However, public policy has not systematically sought to compensate for this drawback by improving the attractiveness of the province in other areas, such as easing restrictions on English school enrolment for new immigrants. Most problematic, Quebec is relatively unattractive to business investors–particularly entrepreneurs, the category of migrants that generate the most wealth for the recipient society. Remedial policy responses are apposite in this latter area.

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Citizenship, Immigration and Multiculturalism Minister Jason Kenney announced today proposed regulations to better protect the rights of live in caregivers and to make it easier for them and their families to obtain permanent residence in Canada. The announcement follows extensive consultations with caregiver groups from across the country, as well as heartfelt testimony before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Citizenship and Immigration.

The first proposed change to the Live-in Caregiver Program eliminates the requirement for live-in caregivers to undergo a second medical examination when applying to become permanent residents, a change advocated by the late Juana Tejada.

Ms. Tejada developed cancer while working as a live-in caregiver. She was initially denied permanent resident status when she did not pass her second medical examination. It was only through special ministerial intervention that she gained status in Canada on humanitarian and compassionate grounds.

“Our government fully supports the ‘Juana Tejada Law.’ We propose to implement this change in her honour, to ensure that no one else has to endure this same painful experience,” said Minister Kenney.

Another proposed change will allow live-in caregivers who work overtime to apply for permanent residence sooner. Currently, live-in caregivers must work for two years within the first three years of entry into the program before they can apply for permanent residence in Canada. Unfortunately, events – such as pregnancies or loss of employment – have resulted in some live-in caregivers not meeting the two-year requirement.

Under the new measure, live-in caregivers would be eligible to apply for permanent residence after 3,900 work hours – the equivalent of working a standard work week for two years. Also, a portion of their overtime hours could count toward the work requirement and enable caregivers to apply for permanent residence sooner. Equally important, these changes would also increase the time that live-in caregivers are allowed to complete the work requirement from three to four years.

“These important changes help fulfil Canada’s duty to those who care for our young, our disabled and our elderly,” Minister Kenney said. “The Government of Canada is taking action to protect foreign workers from potential abuse and exploitation.”

The proposed regulations will also require employers of live-in caregivers to pay for:

• travel costs for live-in caregivers to come to Canada;
• medical insurance until live-in caregivers become eligible for provincial health coverage; and
• workplace safety insurance and any recruiting fees owed to third parties.

Under additional administrative changes to the program, employment contracts will have to spell out these employer-paid benefits. They will also have to include clauses clearly outlining job duties, hours of work, overtime and holidays, sick leave, and termination and resignation terms.

Citizenship and Immigration Canada (CIC) will work closely with caregiver groups to improve information packages that live-in caregivers receive before they leave for Canada. CIC will also set up a dedicated live-in caregiver hotline. Emergency processing of work permits and new authorization requests from employers to hire a live-in caregiver will help caregivers when they need to change employers urgently. Live-in caregivers will continue to be able to apply for study permits when they want to take courses longer than six months; they do not need study permits for shorter courses.

Today’s announcement builds on recently proposed regulatory changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker Program. Employers found to have provided significantly different wages, working conditions or occupations than they promised may be put on a blacklist making them ineligible to hire a live-in caregiver for two years under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program. Employers on this blacklist could be identified on the Citizenship and Immigration Canada website in order to inform prospective and current temporary foreign workers of ineligible employers.

The Live-in Caregiver Program helps Canadians recruit caregivers to live and work in the homes of those they care for in order to provide child care or support for seniors or people with disabilities. The program facilitates the entry of qualified caregivers into Canada when there is a shortage of Canadians or permanent residents to fill available live-in caregiver positions. Because of Canada’s ageing population, the program is expected to grow in the years ahead. In 2008, Canada admitted 12,878 live-in caregivers.

The proposed changes to the Live-in Caregiver Program will be published in the Canada Gazette on December 19 for a 30-day comment period open to all Canadians. Final regulatory changes will be published after this period.

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Toronto’s selection as the host of the 2011 International Indian Film Academy Awards is a real “coup” for Ontario and comes because of the reputation of the city’s annual international film festival, Premier Dalton McGuinty said Wednesday.

McGuinty was in Mumbai for the announcement that Toronto will be the first North American city to host the awards, which are held in a different international city each year.

“Our standing as the host of the Toronto International Film Festival put us in really good stead,” the premier said in a telephone interview.

“We have the know-how, we’ve got the experience and we’ve got the infrastructure. It’s really quite an honour for us to score this coup.”

The Indian Academy Awards will cap a four-day celebration of everything to do with Indian film, including a film festival and industry forum, to be held in Toronto June 16-19, 2011.

Bollywood fans are expected to come out in big numbers for the event, said McGuinty.

“It brings with it a viewing audience in excess of 350 million to say nothing of 60,000 tourists who are drawn to this, and the 500 or so stars and producers and the like,” he said.

“I don’t think it hurts us at all that when some of the Bollywood stars have been to Toronto in the past they have been mobbed by a huge number of fans, particularly from the South Asian community.

“So they feel very much at home there.”

The first International India Film Academy Awards were held at the Millennium Dome in London, England in 2000, and McGuinty said Bollywood is quickly becoming as mainstream as Hollywood.

“Bollywood, with movies like ‘Slum Dog Millionaire,’ is making the transition beyond the South Asian community to a much broader audience, and I think that’s one of the reasons they wanted to come to North America,” he said.

“With so many film buffs living in Ontario, Indian film stars and executives will feel right at home.”

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