AKCanada

Recession
Recession

We have recorded the two strongest consecutive trimesters in the last decade
The Canadian economy grew by 6.1 per cent in the first quarter, on top of 4.9-per-cent growth in the fourth quarter, the two strongest consecutive trimesters in the last decade.

That news on Monday pretty well locked in the Bank of Canada’s announcement yesterday morning that it was raising the bank rate by 25 basis points to 0.5 per cent, from the rock-bottom stimulative rate of 0.25 per cent where it has been for more than a year.

This is a transactional move by the bank and its governor, Mark Carney, about the least the markets expected but less than a 50-basis-point increase that might have been justified by the strong economic data.

The modest increase is explained by the cautionary language of the central bank’s guidance, noting “the economic recovery is proceeding but is increasingly uneven across some countries,” while acknowledging “the possibility of renewed weakness in Europe.”

The euro worries that have roiled markets for the last month are obviously the main point of concern. The Greek sovereign debt crisis, and the domino effect on neighbours like Spain and Italy, triggered a nearly $1-trillion rescue package that might or might not stabilize the euro, but have thus far failed to calm volatility in global markets. The month of May was anything but merry – in Canada the TSX declined four per cent, while in New York the Dow was down eight per cent, its worst month of May since 1940.

Leaving the market churn aside, the fundamentals of the Canadian economy are remarkably solid across the board.

For example, while the 6.1-per-cent growth rate in the first quarter might be cause for concern about the economy overheating, the inflation rate of 1.8 per cent is still within the central bank’s target rate of two per cent.

The quarterly growth rates were led by housing and consumer spending, and the housing market will continue to benefit from cheap money. In spite of the bank rate increase, BMO later yesterday lowered its 25-year mortgage rate by 10 basis points to 4.25 per cent.

Such strong economic growth means jobs, jobs, jobs. In April, the economy grew by 109,000 jobs, the strongest month on record. When the May job numbers come out at week’s end, there’s every reason to expect another solid month.

A look inside the April unemployment numbers of 8.1 per cent shows Quebec, at 7.9 per cent, below the national average, and nearly a full point below Ontario’s 8.8 per cent. You don’t see that every day. In fact Quebec added 35,000 jobs in April and 91,000 since last July. When the May numbers come in, Quebec will likely have created more than 100,000 jobs in less than a year. (You’d think Jean Charest would be able to sell those numbers. Robert Bourassa sure would have, having once run on a slogan of 100,000 jobs over four years, not one.)

The other thing about the growth numbers is their positive impact on the federal deficit. The unofficial number for the last fiscal year ending March 31 came in last week, and at $47 billion, that’s $6 billion below the budget forecast of $53 billion, and it’s right on three per cent of GDP. This, among other Canadian good- news stories, is the best budget narrative in the G7, not by a little but by a lot. Try the British deficit of $400 billion, or 13 per cent of GDP, or the U.S. current deficit of $1.6 trillion, 10 per cent of GDP, equivalent to our entire economy.

For the current fiscal year, the deficit is forecast at $49 billion, but the whisper number is in the low 40s. This means that over two years, the debt will be $16 billion lower than forecast, and with luck the books might be balanced even before 2015. And this should end the argument that this is a structural as opposed to a cyclical deficit. A deficit that’s three per cent of GDP, on its way to zero, coming out of the scary downturn we’ve just lived through, is cyclical. End of discussion.

Carney has even benefitted from the euro crisis, with investors taking safe haven in the U.S. dollar, taking some of the upward pressure off the loonie. From exchange rate parity only a month ago, the loonie has backed off to 95 cents, which will make life a little easier for our exporters.

But the loonie should remain strong, not only as a petro currency, but because of the sound fundamentals of our economy and our fiscal framework.

There is no doubt that we have come out of the recession in better shape than any of our G7 partners.

“I would say unambiguously so,” says BMO economist Doug Porter. “Slowly but surely, Canada’s advantages are coming to the fore.”

Take our FREE Online Assessment Today!

FREE ASSESSEMENT

Socialize with Abrams & Krochak

Employment Opportunities  in Canada
Employment Opportunities in Canada

The Canadian economy keeps outperforming expectations, continuing a trend of strong monthly gains by adding 24,700 jobs in May after a massive pick-up the previous month.

Economists had expected a more modest 15,000 increase, particularly following April’s oversized 108,000 gain.

Several underlying factors in the May numbers announced Friday by Statistics Canada pointed to a labour market that is returning to health quickly after the 2008-09 recession.

Statistics Canada noted that the job gains would have been stronger but for the loss of 42,500 part-time workers and 28,000 from the self-employment ranks.

May saw a 67,300 increase in full-time workers, an indication employers are increasing work hours as they step up production.

And there was more good news in the May numbers regular employment rose dramatically by 52,800 jobs, and the private sector added 43,400 workers.

Even the summer labour market for students showed signs of normalizing, with 54,000 more students aged 20 to 24 finding employment last month, an increase of 3.1 percentage points compared to May 2009 when the economy was in the throes of a deep slump.

“The exceptionally strong employment growth over the past few months highlights the positive momentum in the Canadian economy, and reinforces the Bank of Canada’s rationale to hike rates earlier this week despite the turmoil in Europe,” wrote BMO Capital Markets chief economist Sherry Cooper.

“Canadian employment is now only 108,000 from the peak hit in October 2008, and is up 1.7 per cent from a year ago, much better than the still-negative yearly change in the U.S.”

Despite the increases in all the major categories, Canada’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 8.1 per cent. That’s because more people were drawn into the labour force in anticipation of finding work.

Employment gains in Canada have generally surpassed economists’ expectations since last July, when the economy began to come out of its nearly year-long slide.

Since then, Canada’s economy has added 310,000 jobs, recouping about 75 per cent of the losses suffered during the recession.

“Job creation was bound to slow after the April figure knocked the socks off expectations,” said TD Bank senior economist Pascal Gauthier.

“All said, the latest employment data confirms a relatively strong domestic economic recovery that has begun to mature where incremental gains diminish while becoming self-sustaining.”

Among core-aged workers, women have fared better than men by almost two-to-one.

The government agency said the key gains last month came in the transportation and warehousing industries, as well as health care and social assistance, and public administration.

Construction, which has been strong of late, was little changed last month, as was the factory sector.

There were also setbacks in the accommodation and food services sector, information, culture and recreation, and in natural resources.

Regionally, all provinces except British Columbia and Prince Edward Island saw employment rise or remain steady in May, with Ontario registering the biggest increase with a 17,700 pick-up.

Take our FREE Online Assessment Today!

FREE ASSESSEMENT

Socialize with Abrams & Krochak

TD Toronto Jazz Festival

TD Toronto Jazz Festival
TD Toronto Jazz Festival

The warm weather and longer days remind us that summer is almost here, and that the city’s largest music festival is ready to kick off a musical celebration like no other! The TD Toronto Jazz Festival, running from June 25 – July 4, will feature local, national, and international musical sensations in almost every neighbourhood across the city. Rising stars, jazz giants, free concerts, late night jam sessions, kid-friendly activities, easy accessibility and affordability are just a few of this summer’s Festival highlights.

Who do you know?
The biggest names in Jazz are flocking to Toronto this summer for an array of live, intimate performances. Living legends and multi-platinum artists will include Dave Brubeck, Herbie Hancock, Harry Connick, Jr., Roy Hargrove, Keith Jarrett, Mavis Staples, Taj Mahal, Nikki Yanofsky and Bettye LaVette. Whether you’re a well-seasoned jazz listener or musical novice, these names are sure to sound familiar. Come and join the star-studded line-up for what are sure to be some incredible shows!

What’s new and fresh?

This summer, the Toronto Jazz Festival is challenging what some think jazz is, and what it is not. Legendary hip-hop group, The Roots, DJ trio, Scratch Skratch Scratch, Gypsy jazz group Emir Kuristica and The No Smoking Orchestra and Django-inspired Quebec natives,The Lost Fingers will showcase their talent for Torontonians. Take the time to appreciate the many sounds of jazz and maybe learn a thing or two. The Toronto Jazz Festival is full of surprises!

Fun for FREE

The Toronto Jazz Festival has just announced a FREE Saturday night street party with Grammy-Award winner Macy Gray, and legendary R&B artist Chaka Khan. Join Breakfast Television hosts Kevin Frankish and Dina Pugliese as they emcee this spectacular event at Yonge-Dundas Square on July 3rd. The free shows don’t stop there, Shops at Don Mills will host performances by Jane Bunnett, The Rhythm and Truth Brass Band, Elizabeth Shepherd, the Robi Botos Quartet and Latin band, Sambacana, all free of cost. This summer is the perfect opportunity to explore the magic of Toronto and the power of music without loosening any purse strings. And don’t forget to check out the Nathan Phillips Square lunchtime and after work concerts featuring Jim Galloway, Yvette Tollar, Christine Jensen, Jaffa Road and Buck 65, all for FREE!

And lots, LOTS more!

What more could the Toronto Jazz Festival possibly offer? How about fan-favourite Groove & Graffiti, live aerosol art with local artists Elicser and Mediah and some talented Toronto youth? Or extended bar hours at select locations to host late night jam sessions? Maybe some off-the-beaten-track jazz music as part of the Next Wave Series may be of interest. Believe it or not, the 2010 Festival will showcase 300 concerts, 1,500 performers and over 40 locations! Be sure to gather friends and family to take in a few shows, soak up the sun, and enjoy what the 2010 Toronto Jazz Festival has to offer!

Take our FREE Online Assessment Today!

FREE ASSESSEMENT

Socialize with Abrams & Krochak

Alexandra Orlando
Alexandra Orlando

What does it actually mean to be a Torontonian?

Recently, the issue of identity has been on my mind lately. When I read through the newspaper and catch the on-line headlines that seem to continuously flash before my eyes, issues and events are defined in certain perspectives; the liberal perspective, the conservative perspective, the global consciousness, national interest, municipal benefits. Each article identifies with a certain group of people, beliefs and ideology.

So when we talk about Toronto and what we want to see our city become, is it really for the collective good or individual? We are an extremely multicultural city and will always be very proud of the number of languages and cultures that fill our city streets.

I feel that we need to think about what actually brings us all together. What connects our city? Leafs nation is still going strong (don’t ask me how or why), but let’s face it, although it’s a big group of people it still doesn’t define our city.

My vision for the future of Toronto is finding our identity and embodying what it means to be a Torontonian. What are our values? We all know what our own values are, but as a community what do we stand for?

Is it too radical to suggest we should have community animators in every part of the city strengthening the bond that holds us all together through local centres, libraries, schools and businesses.

I’m not talking about pricey government supported programs, which I truly believe we need more of, but going back to grass roots; people helping people. Whether this is a “learn to play” night for kids at the local community centre or a book/movie exchange at the library, the importance is consistency.

We must continue to bring people together and I believe and would expect my provincial government and those who govern us to do just that.